Bankroll if every play was $10 at -110, since opening weekend
Everything the model says · next 7 days
Scanning every game with a line…
Track record by signal · $10 a bet
How picks are chosen
PLAY — college: the fitted totals model at ≥58% (tested 62.9 / 65.2 / 55.4% on seasons it never saw), or the underdog implied to score ≤10 → OVER (67% this season). Skipped when another signal points the opposite way on the same total, or when an OVER would be played into 20+ mph gusts.
PLAY — NFL: only when two measured signals agree: "both teams' last game went under → OVER" (55 / 59 / 63% the last three seasons) and the model on the same side at ≥55%. The NFL board is break-even this season, so NFL plays are rarer and stay at $10.
LEAN: model 55–58% in college, or ≥58% alone in the NFL. $5, or skip.
Not on this page: live in-game calls (losing money: 190–177), the college "60+ total → under" rule (8–12 this season), spreads (no side edge has held up), and anything built on "QB ruled out" (15–22).
Full board with every signal: nfl-edge-kappa.vercel.app · this page is reference math, nothing is placed · never bet what you can't afford to lose.